![]() ![]() Ouster is arguably Luminar's closest rival, but it has a somewhat different focus - and a much smaller market cap, at around $250 million. Wall Street thinks Luminar has the cash to stick around until then, and it likes the look of the lidar maker's pipeline: Analysts expect Luminar to deliver $84.5 million in revenue this year, growing to $268.4 million in 2024, according to Refinitiv. ![]() Luminar CFO Tom Fennimore said earlier this month that investors shouldn't expect Luminar to hit breakeven until the end of 2025. ![]() But most of that revenue is years away, and the company still has a long way to go before it starts reporting profits. Russell sees Luminar growing its forward-looking order book, which stood at $3.4 billion at the end of 2022, by at least another $1 billion in 2023. "Our target market penetration by the end of the decade is only 3% to 4%," Russell said, "because we think even with that, we'll be able to achieve around $5 billion revenue and $2.5 billion EBITDA with as much as a $60 billion forward-looking order book at that point." Luminar, which began shipping its lidar units in November, has big ambitions, but as Russell pointed out during its most recent earnings call, it doesn't need huge market share to make money. That's more than most other lidar companies that recently went public via SPACs are expected to generate, but it's well behind forecasts for the two emerging leaders of the group, Luminar and Ouster. startups.Īside from its work with BMW, Innoviz has a big contract with Volkswagen and is deep in talks with several other global automakers.Īnalysts polled by Refinitiv expect Innoviz to report just $6 million in revenue in 2023, but they see it growing to $17.1 million in 2024 once its shipments to BMW get up to full speed. In China, the market is already led by local lidar maker Hesai, which generated $123.2 million in revenue in the first half of 2023.īut the worldwide addressable market is likely to be large enough to leave significant opportunities for a few of the post-SPAC U.S. Some will go to existing global auto suppliers, which may or may not turn to startups for the technology. ![]() Not all of that market share will be claimed by Innoviz, of course. "We believe that a major portion of the industry market share is going to be determined in the next 12 to 18 months," he said. "The technology is safety critical, there are very high levels of tech differentiations, and the player that wins the most business is ultimately going to have a scale and cost leadership advantage that is likely going to be difficult to match," Keilaf said during Innoviz's earnings call earlier this month. Innoviz CEO Omer Keilaf thinks the new BMW series will be followed by a wave of vehicles equipped with lidar sensors. While the big money is still a few years away, some of those startups are already separating themselves from the pack with growing order books, fast-evolving technology, and revenue - right now, or soon - in the tens of millions of dollars. Valuations for those companies have since fallen sharply, but a few - namely Innoviz, Luminar and Ouster - could finally be poised for major growth, and soon, as automakers rush to adopt more advanced hands-free driving systems. Playing into investors' intense interest in self-driving technology, many lidar startups went public via mergers with special purpose acquisition companies, or SPACs, over the last few years. They're also finding increasing applications with advanced driver-assist systems as well as many other areas of robotics. Lidar sensors are considered important components of nearly all autonomous-vehicle systems currently under development. Lidar, short for light detection and ranging, is a sensor technology that uses invisible lasers to create a detailed 3D map of the sensor's surroundings. Personal Loans for 670 Credit Score or Lower Personal Loans for 580 Credit Score or Lower Best Debt Consolidation Loans for Bad Credit ![]()
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